Carolinas Weather Update: February 20, 2022

I'm going to try this in a "blog" format since FB wants to slap a "climate change" tag to all of my posts.  My posts aren't political and I'm just not going to have it.

Anyway, we have a BIG TIME taste of spring coming this week.  A frontal system will wreak havoc in temperature forecasting later in the week, followed by another push of very warm temps... before a cold front brings us back to reality by next weekend.

For Monday, a southerly flow of winds will set up as high pressure lifts off the east coast.  This will allow for our temps to climb to near 70 inland... with temps staying in the mid 60s along the coast thanks to colder ocean water temps.

The latest NAM3k model shows an area of showers (mainly light showers) lifting north throughout the day Monday.  If this model is to be believed, light showers will impact areas primarily east of I-95 from south to north during the day on Monday.

This is the NAM3k future radar model for 1 PM Monday.  The big arrows indicate the general flow of wind and moisture.  The white arrow shows the movement of the expected precipitation (click on the graphic to enlarge).

The HRRR modeling does not show this feature, other than a hint of some showers just offshore.

I believe whatever precipitation occurs will be light and spotty.  The precipitation would be caused by something known in meteorology circles as "isentropic lift."  This is a "lifting" of air causing lots of cloudiness and precipitation.  In some cases it can cause widespread rain and even convective elements (thunderstorms), but this won't be the case today.  The lift is very shallow, trapped beneath a fairly robust "inversion" (where temperature rises with height instead of falling).

The warm and humid southwest flow will continue on Tuesday as a fairly strong area of low pressure lifts northward from Missouri into the Great Lakes.  I expect partly sunny skies (probably a 50/50 mix of sun and clouds) with temperatures well into the 70s... even around 70 to the beaches.  The colder ocean waters won't have as much impact given the southwesterly wind component.  Southern Brunswick county beaches may still see highs stuck in the upper 60s.

We REALLY warm up on Wednesday.  The aforementioned area of low pressure will push a frontal boundary in our direction, and the southwesterly wind flow will ramp up.

The map shows a few ripples of low pressure on that front, helping to enhance our warm temperatures.

How warm?  How about highs punching into the 80s.  The NWS is calling for highs into the 80s for much of southeast NC away from the coast (temps in the lower to middle 70s along the coast).

After Wednesday the forecast becomes quite challenging.  The low(s) forming on the cold front will "kink" the front a bit... it will stop the front's southward progression through North Carolina.  The modeling shows a fairly dramatic difference in temperatures north of the front vs south of the front.  The GFS model, as shown below, brings the front the farthest south, extending west-to-east across extreme northern South Carolina, to a line from roughly Bennettsville through Lumberton, Elizabethtown, to Burgaw.

The European model (below) keeps the front farther to the north (with a bit of a wedge feature across western NC)... warmer temperatures extending farther to the north.

Regardless of the position of the front, I don't expect much (if any) precipitation locally on Thursday.

On Friday, the low that causes the kink in the front moves north off of the coast of Long Island, while a second low forms over northeast Pennsylvania.  A nice little snowstorm sets up for New York and New England, while our temps SOAR into the 80s once again.  

The cold front (for real this time) finally moves west to east across the state Friday night into Saturday bringing showers... and an end to the springlike temps.  

Model total precipitation for the entire week is meager.  While I think we're going to see lots of clouds over the week, I don't think we'll see a lot of rain.  The precipitation on Thursday should remain NORTH of the front.  Here are the model rainfall totals for the week.

Here are your local area forecasts, beaches and inland.

Ok that'll do it for this update.  Let me know what you think of this format.  Anything that can be improved?  Taken away?  Leave it alone? 

Thank you for viewing!