Carolinas Weather Update: February 27, 2022

(Click/tap on images to enlarge.)


Today's blog just doesn't have a lot to talk about!  Our weather system that brought the rain to our area today is exiting stage-right as I write this.  All models show near-zero precipitation chances through the work week.  Temperatures will show a definite warming trend... but that warming trend will be stopped (temporarily) on Friday as a "backdoor cold front" drops south over the area.

The above map shows the cold front south of our area early Friday morning.  A northeasterly wind flow will bring cooler temps to the area (actually, temps will return to where they should be the first week in March).


The following slides show expected temperatures over the next 36 hours and then for the coming week.  This is as of model data posted at 1 PM Sunday.   I don't see any reason to "hate on" these numbers and believe they're going to be pretty accurate.  Again, click on each image to enlarge. 

Here are my forecasts for beaches and inland areas.

Taking a look at more long-term trends, it really does appear that spring has sprung across the Carolinas.  The Climate Prediction Center's latest forecasts show a near-certainty for above-normal temperatures through March 13th, with near-normal to slightly above normal precipitation chances over the same time frame.

Extending beyond that, the CPC expects a 60% to 70% chance of our area experiencing above-normal temperatures through March 25, with near-normal precipitation chances.

Going even farther, the latest seasonal outlook (March, April, and May) calls for a 40% to 50% chance of above-normal temps with near-normal to slightly below normal precip chances.  It should be noted that these are "broad" forecasts -- there may be periods where temps run below normal or we get periods of rain.

Finally, let's take a look at the latest drought information.  Yes... the coastal Carolinas are in a drought, and the long-term outlook through May 31, 2022, calls for a continuation/development of this drought.  Again, that doesn't mean we won't get any rainy periods, but "on the whole," dry conditions are expected to persist.

Ok, that'll do it for this update.  Again, there simply isn't a lot to talk about for the weather this coming week.  Enjoy the sunshine and the warming temperatures.  I expect allergy season to have an early start... azaleas are already starting to bloom.  I imagine grass and tree pollen will start to fly as warm temperatures dominate the next 2 weeks.

I hope everyone has a great and safe week.  Thank you for taking time to read this blog, and feel free to share!

-Chris